For the last three decades, the policy of the United States toward has revolved around counterterrorism and development aid, with little consideration of great power competition. The rise of China and Russia and the decline of , however, are rendering that posture increasingly untenable. Fortunately for President Joe Biden, America’s partners are also emerging players on the continent.
Since 2020, coups d’etats have taken place in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and most recently Gabon, but political upheaval is not the only thing these countries have in common. What also binds them are their ties to France as former colonies and members of the Francophone world. In the past, that shared heritage and the relationships that went with it promoted stability, but today, they are of little practical value. In response to the coup in Gabon on Aug. 30, Peter Pham, former U.S. envoy for Africa's Sahel region, remarked: “In the old days of ‘Françafrique,’ this coup would not have happened, and if it did, it would have been quickly reversed.”
Indeed, France is in severe decline in Africa. President Emmanuel Macron has withdrawn 400 French special forces from Burkina Faso and 2,400 French troops from Mali, and he has suspended military collaborations with the Central African Republic. On Feb. 27, Macron put a fig leaf over France's decline by announcing a “new security partnership” with African countries, one in which France provides no security guarantees but training.
As France has receded, Russia has moved to fill the vacuum. The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, not only waged disinformation campaigns to delegitimize France as a partner in the fight against terrorism but also propagated false narratives to intensify the hostility. In April 2022, following its evacuation from the Gossi military base in Mali, the French military discovered footage through surveillance drones of a mass grave dug by Russian mercenaries — in which they buried bodies and then falsely blamed the atrocity on the French.
Though dastardly, the Russian tactics are effective, especially given the objective fact of the French decline. The reputation of France as a reliable security partner has never been lower. Consequently, the U.S. can no longer rely on France in African matters.
But where there is decline, there is also rebirth. Other powers in Africa are emerging: India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and Morocco have all managed to assert themselves as prospective partners for African countries in search of fresh investors and dependable security partners. Above all, they are allies of the U.S. whose reputations have not been tarnished by either China or Russia.
At a time when China aggressively pursues control of African markets and Russia uses anti-French sentiment to sway African countries to its side, the Biden administration can rely on its Middle Eastern partners, for whom the stability of Africa is a national security matter. In fact, instability in Sudan has not only weakened the Sahel region but also jeopardized Red Sea security. This development of course affects neighboring Saudi Arabia but also Turkey, which has strong economic and military ties with Sudan, having signed a $1.1 billion contract to build a new airport in Khartoum in 2018.
While China is the largest investor in Africa, the Biden administration must recognize the potential of its allies. Indeed, Turkey's foreign direct investment in Africa is close to $10 billion, and India is one of the top five investors on the continent as it recently pledged to Nigeria $14 billion of investments. Moreover, with a state-backed Saudi venture in talks with the U.S. to buy mining assets worth $15 billion from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, and Namibia, Saudi Arabia’s partnership will be crucial for U.S. companies involved in the production of electric car batteries and smartphones.
The decline of French military power in Africa also offers the Biden administration the opportunity to reconfigure its major counterterrorism efforts by bolstering local African partners with extensive experience combating jihadi organizations and whose interests are aligned with those of the U.S. For example, Morocco's ability to maintain its position as the most secure country in North Africa makes it a compelling partner for Sahel and West African countries that struggle to track separatist and terrorist organizations across the region. Improving intelligence-sharing with Morocco and equipping it to work with other regional powers could be a game changer for the U.S. in the region.
Finally, the Abraham Accords offer enormous yet untapped potential as a framework for investments aimed at strengthening connections with African countries. When paired with Israel's position as a global leader in agriculture and water technologies, the Abraham Accords countries can, for example, provide tangible answers to countries facing water shortages. By helping to facilitate cooperative ventures, the Biden administration can provide alternatives to China and Russia's development projects.
It is time to recognize that Africa is now part of the grand chessboard of great power competition and that the decline of France offers the U.S. new paths to explore.