For the past week, hundreds of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets in cities across the country, and the situation is escalating by the day. In the capital, Tbilisi, the demonstrators have been met with an increasingly forceful government response, with the use of tear gas and water cannons now routine. Social media is flooded with videos and photos that document police brutality targeting journalists, political activists, and ordinary citizens. Opposition politicians have been arrested from their homes.
Despite the heavy-handed crackdown, the of abating. On the contrary, the government’s aggressive tactics appear to have strengthened the demonstrators’ resolve, who view their cause as a fight for Georgia’s future.
The protests are driven by grievances that have been building for months, but the catalyst was the government’s recent announcement that it will suspend Georgia’s push for European Union membership until at least 2028. Joining the EU has long been a unifying aspiration for Georgians regardless of political affiliation, with polls consistently showing over 80 percent support. This decision has been perceived as a profound betrayal, even by many supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party.
There is also still much anger and frustration over Georgia’s , which many opposition leaders, civil society organizations, and international observers have labeled fraudulent. Since the elections, in which the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party declared victory, demonstrations have flared up intermittently. Similarly, protests broke out in May after the Georgian Dream-led government enacted the so-called “Russian law,” a deeply controversial measure that enables the government to launch Kremlin-style crackdowns on civil society. But the scale and fervor of the protests catalyzed by the EU announcement has not been seen since Georgia’s Rose Revolution in 2003.
What makes this wave of protests particularly significant is the diversity of participants. Past protests were largely fueled by opposition supporters, but the movement has now expanded to include a much broader spectrum of society. Dozens of diplomats and civil servants have resigned to protest the government’s suspension of EU accession and declared their support for the demonstrators. Even some Georgian Dream voters have joined the protests, reflecting a deepening national dissatisfaction.
A galvanizing figure for the protesters has been Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, a staunch Euro-Atlanticist and vocal critic of the ruling party who has joined the protesters and confronted riot police in Tbilisi. Her term ends later this month, but she has until “until a legitimately elected parliament is formed.”
Given the widening scale of the protests with broadening participation, Georgia appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state. While this wave of demonstrations is only entering its second week, the grievances driving them have been simmering for years. The situation is evolving rapidly, making it difficult to predict the next steps.
Four potential scenarios should inform Western policymakers as they navigate their response.
Compromise scenario: With enough internal and external pressure, the Georgian Dream government could decide to backtrack on some of its more controversial decisions. Bidzina Ivanishvili, a wealthy oligarch and former prime minister who is widely considered to be the de-facto leader of Georgian Dream, could decide that he and his allies have pushed too far too fast—and take steps to de-escalate. This might involve minor concessions, such as reversing the decision to suspend EU accession or repealing the Russian law. A more significant compromise would be an agreement on new parliamentary elections.
However, with each day that goes by and each new bout of government violence against the demonstrators, the possibility of a compromise that will satisfy the demands of the people becomes more remote. Already, the debate among the protesters has moved beyond specific grievances, such as the Russian law or election fraud. Many Georgians now see the standoff between protesters and the government as reflecting a civilizational choice between slipping back into the Russian world or deepening integration with Europe and the West. The fact that the debate has reached this point suggests that even a compromise on specific issues will not make the fight over Georgia’s future identity go away.
Belarus scenario: Georgia could also see a variation of what happened in Belarus following the in August 2020, when weekslong protests were followed by brutal police-state suppression with Russian help. In this case, Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream associates might refuse any and all compromise, leaning on Moscow to institute an authoritarian crackdown to entrench their power. This would involve the use of all state resources to rapidly suppress civil society, political opposition, and independent media. Russian support could take the form of assistance by its security services, similar to how the Kremlin aided the Belarusian regime.
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