Rising Axis showcases the depth of 91’s analysis on how America and its allies can compete with and defeat the axis of aggressors.
“America’s refusal to build an anti-Iran bloc is delivering the Middle East to China,” wrote Michael Doran last March. Though China is not overtly involved in Iran and its proxies’ aggression against US allies in the region, Chinese President Xi Jinping is shoring up China’s energy security by tightening relations with Iran and courting oil-rich Gulf states.
As long as the United States refuses to check Iran militarily or present a credible alternative to Beijing’s promises, the axis of aggressors will continue to grow its influence in the Middle East. Read below to learn more about China and Iran’s collaboration and what the US can do to counter it.
Iran’s increasingly sophisticated drone and missile strike packages are driving America’s beleaguered allies to seek protection in Beijing.
— Michael Doran and Can Kasapoğlu
In Other Words . . .
“If America doesn’t reverse its course soon, the gap that Xi has created by leveraging the Iranian threat will continue to widen, empowering China and leaving America out in the cold.”
— Michael Doran and Can Kasapoğlu
Facts and Figures
1. In the event of war in Taiwan, China will look to Tehran for support.
- In January 2022, Doran and Bryan Clark observed that Iran’s proxies could threaten crucial shipping lanes and pin down US military resources in the Persian Gulf amid a Taiwan Strait conflict scenario. China is not yet strong enough to mount a direct challenge to the US in the Middle East, so Beijing uses Iran as its stalking horse, they write.
- China and Iran entered into a 25-year strategic accord in 2021. While China is not actively encouraging Iran to unleash its proxies against America’s Gulf allies, Beijing is building up Tehran and doing nothing to counter its most malign behavior.
- China sells military equipment to most of America’s Middle Eastern allies and manufactures weapons in partnership with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Beijing is also helping the Saudis master nuclear technology.
For more, read Clark and Doran’s op-ed “Why Russia and China Build Up Iran.”
2. China is strengthening its partnership with Iran by purchasing an increasing amount of oil and helping Tehran evade sanctions.
- China is the main recipient of Iran’s illicit oil exports. Chinese banks also give Iran’s besieged financial system a lifeline by facilitating oil payments and other transactions prohibited by Western sanctions.
- In December 2022, China reported imports of a record-breaking amount of Malaysian oil. China’s numbers suggest that Malaysia tripled its average daily output and pumped more oil than Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Zineb Riboua suggested in February 2023 that a more likely explanation is that Iranian oil is coming into China disguised as Malaysian oil.
- Iran conducts its illicit transfers using a “ghost fleet” of oil tankers. These vessels fly under the radar by registering in countries like Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands. By working with these countries, the US could begin to address this critical loophole.
- Iran relies heavily upon China for economic support. Iran-China trade reached a record $15.8 billion in 2022. Washington’s inconsistent approach to enforcement, combined with democratic allies’ unwillingness to align with the United States on sanctions, has enabled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to continue funneling hundreds of millions of these dollars through its terrorist financing networks.
For more, read Nate Sibley’s policy memo “Bankrupting Iran’s Empire of Terror.”
3. America’s allies believe the US is likely to leave the Middle East. China, by contrast, is screaming with a bullhorn that it will soon be a major player in the region.
- Xi Jinping brokered a reconciliation between Iran, America’s adversary, and Saudi Arabia, Washington’s most influential Arab ally, in March 2023. This toppled the United States from its throne as the unrivaled strategic actor in the Middle East.
- China now holds the balance between Iran and the Gulf states with respect to the weapons that give Iran its disruptive military edge. So Xi can influence relations between America’s Gulf allies and Iran.
- China is the only power that can credibly promise to throttle Iran’s aggression. Washington has unparalleled military tools but refuses to use them. Beijing, by contrast, has political influence in Tehran, and it is working toward developing the military tools it needs to achieve its strategic goals.
For more, read Doran’s op-ed “Biden Is Delivering the Middle East to China.”