China’s Nuclear Buildup
The Department of Defense has released its on Chinese military developments. The report confirms that China is accelerating its strategic nuclear breakout. China now has over 600 fully operational nuclear warheads in its arsenal, up from the estimate of 500 in last year’s report. This supports the DoD’s assessment that China is on track to have 1,000 fully operational nuclear warheads by 2030. Official assessments expect China to complete its buildup and modernization efforts by 2035. However, Xi Jinping’s aim to replace the United States as the preeminent geopolitical power—and his attendant ambitions to undermine US security alliances—raises doubts that China will be satisfied with peer nuclear status rather than nuclear superiority.
The New START Treaty between the US and Russia is the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement. Yet Moscow is not complying with its verification requirements. The treaty limits each nation to 1,550 total deployed nuclear weapons between intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (with each bomber counted as one warhead). The treaty is expected to expire in February 2027.
The DoD report includes several key findings regarding China’s nuclear buildup:
- China possesses approximately 400 ICBMs, up from last year’s estimate of 350, all of which can reach the continental United States.
- The People’s Liberation Army’s expanding nuclear force will enable it to target more US cities, military facilities, and leadership sites than ever before in a potential nuclear conflict.
- Since 2017, China has constructed 30 new silos for DF-5-class liquid-propellant ICBMs, more than doubling its previous total before the recent buildup.
- The Chinese Navy has fielded the extended-range JL-3-class SLBM, capable of reaching the continental United States, on its JIN-class ballistic missile submarine, enabling China to strike the continental United States with SLBMs from the Bohai Gulf or the South China Sea.
- With Russian assistance, China has completed construction of the first of two planned CFR-600 nuclear reactors, and construction on the second is ongoing. Each reactor can annually produce enough weapons-grade plutonium for “dozens of nuclear warheads.”
- China is developing an “early warning counterstrike” posture aimed at rapidly responding to warnings of a nuclear attack with retaliatory strikes.
- China seeks to diversify its force with more low-yield precision strike missiles to control escalation.
Since the Cold War the United States has sought to rely less on nuclear weapons in its defense strategy. But Russia and China have not followed suit. Both have invested heavily in nuclear weapons as part of their strategies to coerce the US and its allies. Making matters worse, Russia is .
How the US Should Respond
The United States needs to prioritize strategic deterrence above all else. It should adapt its forces to credibly deter simultaneous and opportunistic aggression.
1. Prioritize efforts to bolster strategic deterrence. The modernization of the nuclear deterrent, supported and expedited by both the Trump and Biden administrations, is essential. In 2023, the , of which I was a member, found that the currently planned US nuclear force modernization is necessary but not sufficient. This latest report on China’s nuclear buildup reinforces the commission’s findings and the salience of its recommendations.
2. Urgently adapt US theater nuclear options to offer the president a range of credible nuclear response options to convince China and Russia that their nuclear threats will not achieve their aims and they should not venture to use even a low-yield nuclear option. These theater options should account for advances in Russian and Chinese integrated air and missile defense (IAMD). To do this, the US will also need its allies to build up their conventional forces while contributing to US efforts to improve nuclear deterrence.
3. Adapt and expand missile defense to protect the US homeland as well as critical assets abroad. IAMD contributes to deterrence by complicating adversaries’ calculations and causing them to doubt their attacks will succeed. As China’s nuclear program matures and the United States seeks to protect the American people and US vital interests, Washington should also bolster homeland defense against Chinese and Russian missile threats.