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Commentary
Wall Street Journal

Iran Might Have Miscalculated in Gaza

It had an interest in dividing Israel from Arab states. So far that hasn’t happened.

walter_russell_mead
walter_russell_mead
Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship
Vehicles drive on a street across from an anti-US mural in Tehran on March 12, 2022. (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)
Caption
Vehicles drive on a street across from an anti-US mural in Tehran on March 12, 2022. (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

Most news and commentary describes the war in Gaza as the latest brutal episode in the conflict between Israelis and Arabs. That is one dimension, but from the perspective of world-power politics, it isn’t the most important. What really matters in the Middle East is the battle between Iran, increasingly backed by Russia and China, and the loose and uneasy group of anti-Iranian powers that includes Israel and the American-backed Arab states.

There is much about the Gaza war that we still don’t know: how long it will last, what the death toll will be, how many hostages can be rescued or returned, and how successful Israel will be in its declared objective of destroying Hamas.