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Without a Major Shift in US Energy Policy, European Resistance to Russian Aggression and the Transatlantic Relationship Are at Risk

The Klingenberg natural gas-powered thermal power station on July 04, 2022, in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Caption
The Klingenberg natural gas-powered thermal power station on July 04, 2022, in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Europe is facing a serious economic downturn, with industrial production and real wages both falling rapidly and factories in key industries such as chemicals, steel and machinery closing. The rapid increase in energy prices due in part due to the European Union’s (EU) restrictions on Russian energy imports and President Putin’s response further slowing exports have combined with the EU program to move to a more carbon free economy to produce skyrocketing energy prices. The looming economic crisis now threatens political support in Europe for aiding Ukraine in its war with Russia. The U.S. could help alleviate the energy-related crisis in Europe, but only if the Biden administration rapidly shifts to more consistent support for domestic production.

Despite years of warning from American leaders, Europe remained highly dependent on Russian energy, with  and  originating from Putin’s empire in 2021. Since the war in Ukraine, Northwest Europe has seen an 80% reduction of Russian energy exports brought on by both and  Furthermore, the new European objective announced in its  plan to reach independence from Russian fossil fuels by 2030 heightens the risks of a potential energy crisis resulting from politically friendly energy markets 

The negative impacts of unmet European energy needs are hard to understate.  Warnings that  aggravate risks of power outages and energy rationing throughout Europe, and have caused Germany and  to preemptively begin  such as rationing gas supplies to manufacturers. If Europe faces a harsh winter without adequate heating for its citizens, resulting political dissatisfaction risks undermining European resolve in support of Ukraine, which is  already questioned in  Western Europe and is waning in the East. Furthermore, heightened energy costs and overall scarcity are negatively impacting European industrial production, .  area saw a 2% decline in April. Overall, a European economic downturn will also likely 

The Biden Administration has attempted to  ramp up energy exports to assist European allies. The proportion of U.S.  and monthly oil shipments to Europe jumped . However, Biden’s current energy policy  fossil fuel production and processing and thus severely constrains . This incoherence is stunningly illustrated in a June 15th . She simultaneously demanded that oil companies invest massively to increase oil production while also reiterating ambitions to shut them down within the decade. America’s international efforts to increase global energy supply may also be detrimental politically and environmentally in the long run, as they have focused on expanding oil exports from hostile countries like . Biden is now having to do an embarrassing geopolitical turnaround to request increased production from Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, the majority of current idle oil refining capabilities  and could result in an unwanted bolstering of Western .  

A pragmatic course correction of U.S. Energy policy that takes the global energy supply reality into account must thus move towards bolstering overall production, processing, and transportation capacity that can enable America to become a reliable supplier of Europe for the long-run. Indeed, oil gas will continue to be a necessary resources even in the . U.S. producers are measurably more efficient in terms of environmental impacts than countries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela.  Such a policy shift ought to include removing Biden-era roadblocks to increased capacity such as limiting for oil and gas lease authorizations on federal land,  for new interstate natural  and pipelines, as well as  More proactive short-term policy should include helping companies activate already-drilled oil wells as well and . Efforts to discourage capital markets from investing in the oil and gas sector need to be radically rethought.

The U.S. and Europe will both pay a high economic price if such a new program is not adopted quickly. Weaker growth in the West will undermine support for Ukraine’s heroic resistance to Russian aggression. Without increased U.S. production and exports to Europe, it will continue having devastating supply sourcing issues and increasingly become reliant on China’s growing capacity to export refined petroleum products using discounted Russian oil for competitive advantage. This constellation of forces will in turn sap the new-found solidarity of the U.S. and Europe in support of Ukraine and also arrest any evolution toward U.S.-European convergence in policy to combat the growing economic and political power of Russia’s main ally: China. Without a quick turnaround in the Biden agenda to weaken the domestic oil and gas industry, U.S.-European cooperation on global issues is in danger of unraveling.

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