No U.S. partner stands to lose as much under Donald Trump’s zero-sum approach as Mexico, and none is as unprepared to navigate a Trump administration. In office only since Oct. 2, President Claudia Sheinbaum inherited a debilitated country with organized crime in the ascendancy and its credit outlook downgraded in recent weeks.
Now, Sheinbaum may be underestimating the depth of the challenges to Mexico that a Trump administration represents, the day after the U.S. election that “there’s no reason to worry” and that will only deepen U.S. concerns about Mexico.
Sheinbaum may believe that she can replicate her predecessor’s successful management of Trump’s first presidency, but her public response to Trump’s pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico on his first day in office, in which she read from a warning of consequences, suggests she lacks the political instincts of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who often chose not to respond publicly to Trump. López Obrador had also accumulated enough political capital to be able to satisfy Trump’s demands without being weakened domestically. While Sheinbaum won in a landslide, she does not command the loyalty of her Morena party and owes her position largely to López Obrador.
Her approach to diplomacy is driven by ideology, as seen in her decision to . And her foreign policy team has limited experience with the United States and has made no inroads with the incoming administration.
Moreover, the nature of the challenge for Mexico is more acute than eight years ago. During his first administration, Trump threatened to impose tariffs and shut down border crossings, but his main priority with Mexico was construction of a border wall, which was seen as an affront by the Mexican government but did not threaten Mexico’s economy. , Trump is more determined to impose tariffs, deport millions of undocumented workers and attack cartels, and his Cabinet appointments will pursue these goals more decisively than his first-term appointees.
Sheinbaum’s inexperience is dangerous for Mexico at a time when it needs seasoned leadership. However, she has a narrow opportunity to demonstrate that she understands the urgency of the situation. By taking the initiative and working to address U.S. concerns in a few critical areas, she could potentially head off some of the most punitive measures.
One area where Sheinbaum’s government is taking steps in the right direction but needs to do more is Chinese investment. U.S. concerns about China using Mexico to gain tariff-free access to the U.S. market, especially in auto manufacturing, threaten to derail renewal of the USMCA trade agreement in 2026. Much of China’s investment is hidden by the use of offshore entities in third countries, and , Chinese investment is actually six times larger than official figures.
Sheinbaum has called for reducing reliance on Chinese imports and her government has reached out to American and international manufacturers in Mexico asking for help in substituting imported Chinese products and parts with locally manufactured parts. To accomplish this, she will need to go further and pursue policies that support local manufacturing. She can also increase trust by working to provide greater clarity around government data on Chinese investment.
Mexico’s new president could also distance herself from her predecessor on security. The she announced after taking office contains some positive elements, but she should go further. López Obrador’s emphasis on addressing socioeconomic factors over taking on criminals and his suspension of most security cooperation with the United States led to organized crime’s expansion in Mexico, where it is increasingly taking over legal economies such as agriculture.
Sheinbaum had hoped to improve the security situation during her first months in office, but instead, as factions battle for control of the Sinaloa cartel. Rebuilding trust between the two countries on security issues will take time, but investing in Mexican law enforcement’s degraded investigative capabilities and renewing security cooperation with the United States would be a welcome sign.
Finally, Sheinbaum’s is sure to antagonize the incoming administration. While it runs counter to her ideological commitments, working to align herself more closely with U.S. policies towards Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela is one of the least costly steps she could take to improve the U.S.-Mexico relationship and one that would pay immediate dividends.
Taking practical steps along these lines would involve some political risk for Sheinbaum domestically but would build goodwill with U.S. counterparts and help change the narrative about Mexico. A proactive approach could have a moderating effect on the relationship’s dynamics, demonstrating that the United States has a partner in Mexico’s new government and need not rely on unilateral measures to achieve the new administration’s goals.
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