Miles Yu assesses the state of United States–Chinese relations after a group of American travelers in China were targeted in a stabbing attack. He then highlights India’s increased importance as a geostrategic counter to Xi Jinping’s bullying in the Indo-Pacific, as well as Europe’s attempt at curbing Chinese manipulation of the electric vehicle market with a new set of tariffs.
China Insider is a weekly podcast project from 91 Institute's China Center, hosted by Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world’s future.
Episode Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the 91 Institute's China Center. I am Miles Yu, senior fellow and director of the China Center. Join me each week along with my colleague, Shane Leary, for our analysis of the major events concerning China, the China threat, and their implications to the US and beyond.
Phil Hegseth:
It's Tuesday, June 18th and we've got three topics this week for our resident expert Miles. The first is details and Miles’ reaction to a stabbing that occurred when a local Chinese man attacked a group of American teachers visiting the city of Jilin in mainland China. Miles gives us his thoughts on whether it's safe for Americans in China and what it says about the state of US-China relations. Secondly, a friendly exchange on X between India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Taiwanese President Lai Ching Te hints at closer relations between the two democracies, but needless to say, China didn't like it. And finally, the EU must have listened to our episode last week because a few days later they decided to take our advice and raise tariffs on Chinese EVs. Miles analyzes whether the step to curb Chinese market manipulation was actually enough. Alright, hey Miles, happy Tuesday.
Miles Yu:
Same to you Phil.
Phil Hegseth:
Alright, for our first topic last week, news broke four American teachers from a university in Iowa who were attacked and stabbed while visiting Jilin in mainland China. The reports are that 55-year-old attacker bumped into one of the foreigners and then proceeded to pull out a knife and attack the group. One Chinese bystander who tried to help was also injured. Thankfully everyone survived and is recovering from their injuries. But video and pictures from the incident show the American teachers on the ground bleeding. Those images were quickly censored in China but can still be found from US outlets. So, what's your reaction here, Miles? Was this an isolated incident like the Chinese press is claiming or is there more here we should know about this? Under the surface
Miles Yu:
I think what's really shocking about this incident is the casual way with which this vicious violent crime against Americans was carried out. It is just for no reason, no particular provocation. The guy just didn't like Americans. So to answer your question, is this an isolated incident, seemingly because the Chinese government may be correct, statistically violent crimes against Americans is rare. That's true. But when they say violent crime against Americans, and there is also a lot of caveats there. Number one, the anti-American propaganda in Chinese state media is nonstop 24/7. That fact cannot be denied. Which basically brings me to the question to the answer to that observation I just had earlier. That is - it's a very casual - it's a matter of course to attack Americans. Nobody seems to be surprised by this because it's conformed to what the propaganda is saying. So it is isolated, yes, statistically, but no, because it is a natural corollary to what the government has been saying.
I hold the government of China as well as this criminal equally culpable for this unfortunate incident. There's also another caveat in Chinese government statement that is violent crimes against foreigners are rare, yes to Americans, to Europeans, but the foreigners in China, from Africa, from some other Asian countries, Japan, Korea, South Korea and the Philippines and India, there were routinely victims of the violent crimes. Some of the major cities against black Americans in cities, like Guangzhou for example, it's pretty rampant. It's well documented. So, when Chinese government make this a sweeping statement, you have to be very, very careful about the details.
Phil Hegseth:
And something else that jumped out to me was one of the victims who came out and was recalling what happened, they said police told us that he was unemployed and down on his luck was the excuse and the story behind it. But Miles, is it safe for Americans to visit China in general? And what does this whole thing say about the US-Chinese relationship and whether Americans are becoming more skeptical about China?
Miles Yu:
Is safe for Americans to visit China? The answer is no. So we're talking about not just about the street crimes, we're talking about state-sponsored crimes against Americans. That's systemic. China has enacted laws, has amended this anti-espionage act that basically treats every American by default, a suspect for espionage, for spying. So, any American going to China can be subject to arbitrary arrest detention. Most importantly, surveillance. China is the very dystopian state of surveillance. So they're very, very advanced in that. That's why China has been very actively collecting all the biometrics data, personal data of everybody in the world because chances are no matter where you are, you might be just under the Chinese surveillance arm the moment you enter China. So that's why Americans don't go there. So, if you look at the State Department advisory travel advisory website today, you'll see the State Department, US government official travel advisory for Americans going to China is reconsider. So, there are four levels of advice. Number four is the level four is the worst, just don't go. Level three is reconsider, if you have any plan to go to China at all. Despite what the Secretary Janet Yellen and the Secretary Raimondo is saying, oh, we're going to send the Americans to China resume the tourism past - no, it's not going to happen because Americans, they make their own decisions. So, unless China changes their systemic state sponsored crime against Americans, I don't think anybody's going to go to China. If you look at the Chinese tourist industry, the Chinese government published 2023 foreigners entering China in contrast with 2019, which is pre covid. So, in 2023, the difference is between 92 to 99%. Virtually nobody goes there. Just look at the flights between United States and China. Before Covid it was about 150 flights. Each week that number has dropped by 80%.
Today very few people would like to go to China because it's not safe. But also, you'll be most likely to be surveyed to be under Chinese monitoring system. China realizes because tourism industry is a big major deal for the Chinese government's revenue income.
Phil Hegseth:
I was just going to say, is this having an economic impact on them at all?
Miles Yu:
Oh yeah. Yes. But when it comes to national security, China has a national security paranoia. I mean they really, really think everybody's out to get them. This is not just today, this is before Xi Jinping they have been always doing this. Remember about 15 years ago, if you're a backpacker, the most young people in the West like to backpack because its cheap. And also you can actually go to a lot of places, see a lot of places that you cannot see under normal tour guided delegation. Right.
So, if you go to China 15 years ago, what guidebook would you use? You most likely you buy this Australian published guidebook, which is very, very good. It's called Lonely Planet. Lonely Planet is a tourist guidebook that tells you which restaurants are very good at a particular village, which hotel is really good and safe. In that particular county that was considered a national security threat. So China banned Lonely Planet,
Phil Hegseth:
You can't make it up.
Miles Yu:
Yeah, you can’t have it - using the pretext that Lonely Planet, basically treats China and Taiwan separately – that’s a different map. But that was the ruse. The real reason is because China views Lonely Planet, the tour guide, as a major threat to China's national security. That's how paranoid they are. I mean you look at the numbers today, we said last week there are about over 300,000 Chinese students studying in the United States. That accounts for about anywhere between 20, 37 to 40% of entire international student body in the United States. Americans as we speak today in June, 2024, studying in China numbered no more than 700, 700 no zeros. That's it.
Phil Hegseth:
700 to 300,000.
Miles Yu:
That's exactly right. So, you can see the sharp difference. So, to answer your question, is it safe for Americans to go to China? The answer is definitely no.
Phil Hegseth:
Hypothetical question. Maybe some practical advice for Miles. Let's say someone is going to go anyways, they're hardheaded. Miles, what would your advice to them be to keep in mind when visiting, to make sure that they can stay as safe as possible?
Miles Yu:
Do it at your own risk. American Consul General will send people to visit you in a detention center or jail. And that's probably what I can say to you, but just be careful. I mean, and I think in most sensible Americans would know the answer. Obviously, this is not a small matter. This is the small incident that highlights the fundamental difference between United States and China. Those are two completely different systems. It operates on completely different governance ethos. To believe otherwise it is just self kidding. We have been doing that for over half a century. We have to really, really reconsider our approach to China. Not to treat China as any normal country. Normal countries can be bad, can be good, but treat China in a totally different category. It's a communist totalitarian country with the mastery of the world's most advanced technologies for bad purposes. And this is the future we don't want to see for the world. And you talk about people to people exchange, connect, that totally is good. But the Chinese Communist government controls all the access and opportunities for the Chinese people to freely and openly engage with the people of the world. That's why you really cannot say there is a real genuine people to people exchange because there's always the Chinese government in the middle.
Phil Hegseth:
Moving on to our second topic, we're going to bring our focus back to Taiwan, but from a different perspective than usual. A presidential social media exchange actually took place the other week that saw newly reelected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweet directly at Taiwanese president-elect Lai Ching Te saying, “I look forward to closer ties as we work towards mutually beneficial economic and technological partnerships”. So, Miles, we've covered in past weeks, how tense the relationship between China and India have become, but what's the relationship between India and Taiwan like and what should we take away from this exchange?
Miles Yu:
Narendra Modi had a Donald Trump moment because remember when Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, he took a call from the democratically elected Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen. And that was considered controversial. China protested all the bureaucrats in Washington, DC freaked out. And Donald Trump asked a very simple question, why is it not good, not okay for a democratically elected president of the United States to receive a congratulatory call from the democratically elected president in a different country? Nobody could come up with a good answer because people always say, oh, there's the three communiques, this is the problem. China is very sensitive. We might get them mad. I believe in a very broader sense, that probably is a turning point for Donald Trump to carry out his new China policy. This may be another one for India to change its tone toward China. India Chinese relations has always been tense. People always focus on Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea. It is even more likely in my view that the first shot of a gigantic global conflagration involving China might be shot over the Himalayas between India and China because the tensions have been just been so incredibly high, particularly since June, 2020 after the deadly border clash.
So Modi replied to President Lai Ching Te of Taiwan as good, well, congratulations notes by tweeting “Thank you, Ching Te Lai for your warm message. I look forward to close ties as we work towards a mutually beneficial economic and technological partnership”. It's very normal. The Chinese government just didn't like it. They came out with some very strong warning against India, warning India do not violate the One China principle and the India China relationship is important. And this is not very normal. China acts like a cry baby again. And of course, this gives the Taiwanese government an opportunity to counter. So Taiwanese foreign ministry said “China's outrage at the cordial exchange between the leaders of two democracies is utterly unjustifiable. Threats and intimidation never foster friendships.” And that's a pretty clear message. I think. I say kudos to Taiwan.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah, I agree Miles. But let's take a step back and could you actually give me a better picture of India's role in global security and even regional security in the Indo-Pacific
Miles Yu:
India is a very important country. I mean, India's important in global security, has been long ignored for a long time, particularly during the Cold War. A lot to do with India's independent streak and India has a very unique history. But today, when we talk about China being a global threat, India is supremely important in sharing the same adversary, the PRC, not just from the point of view of territorial disputes. As we know that India and China have one of the world's largest territorial dispute, and India and China have gone to war for this. The most pronounced incident was the war between India and China in 1962. India is crucial in a potential Taiwan campaign if China really decided to invade Taiwan because China cannot afford a two front war. India is on the western part of China. Taiwan is the east part of China. So, this is something that China has to take into consideration.
India is also very strong and growing partner with the United States. This is something that China doesn't want to see. Even worse, India for its very complicated history in recent decades since its independence - As a matter of fact in 1947- India is also very close to Russia. During the Cold War, Russia, Soviet Union provided the India with basic sort of arms and equipment. So militarily in terms of armament and equipment, India is heavily reliant upon Russian technology. Not only that, India is a very close friend with Vietnam. Now, Vietnam is another country China constantly loves to bully. And for another very peculiar historical reason, India and Japan are very close right now because India is just about the only country, only meaningful country in Asia that does not have a World War II problem. Entanglement with Japan. You name it, I mean South Korea, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, they're all occupied by Japan during World War II.
So, every time there's a lot of history there, deal with the Japanese relationship. So that's one of the reasons why India, Japanese relationship is very, very strong and very powerful. Now, United States, Vietnam, and Japan are China's regional adversaries and India is very close to all of those. Russia, of course, is also very close to India and it's good and bad. But then from point of view of a counterbalance in China, I think India is really - Russia is also very important because every time China buys game changing weapons from Russia, Russia always makes sure to sell the exactly same kind of weapons, even more to India and Vietnam, both of whom are modernizing their weapons system against China. So you can see India plays a very, very important role. And of course, part of the reason why India and the United States are getting closer is because Pakistan.
Pakistan was the close ally of the United States, of convenience, during the Cold War, but Pakistan has been playing in Afghanistan, yeah, they're basically harboring, promoting a Taliban in Afghanistan and they also harboring, hiding Osama bin Laden, right? America's ultimate enemy. Most importantly Pakistan is China's BFF. So right now, you have this India sponsored, India centered coalition against China in the region and beyond. But then China completely was tone deaf to this, and it was so silly. It made some strategic miscalculations because China believed that India has an independent streak and India is therefore some kind of anti-west. So, China has been actively courting India to join some of the international organizations that were within China’s political orbit. Most pronounced, most pronounced of these organizations were BRICS and SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. So, China actively sought India's membership. Now, India now is a member in both BRICS and SCO.
And so, India can act as a meaningful check to Chinese ambition and revanchism within these organizations that were controlled by China. Finally, there's one very important breakthrough when it comes to United States policy. United States had this long held doctrinal principle that it would not get involved in sovereignty and territorial disputes of countries, in Asia in particular, and over the world. So for longest time, we don't say anything about who is right, which island belong to whom in South China. Even Taiwan wouldn't say that, right. But that China principle was broken over the India and China dispute because last year the White House for the first time made a historical statement siding with India in the Chinese Indian border dispute. That was a pretty amazing statement. I would say, even though people in the White House may not be aware of that, but I know as a historian this is very, very significant.
So, from now on, that incident can be cited as Americans shift away from this pretense, not care about these territorial disputes. All in all, India is China's worst nightmare as China blunders by foolishly including India as an anti-Western ally. India may have some of these difficulty with the totally Western dominated allies, but India is democracy. You have to understand that. And India does have a very big problem with China in terms of geopolitics and national security. And with India being inside the BRICS and SCO, I don't think India will be very happy to concede to China's leadership in many of the global organizations, Nor would Russia.
Phil Hegseth:
They seem like a very dangerous lurking variable in a lot of situations.
Miles Yu:
I think you can say that. But I think India overall with this very robust growth in economy, with this growing confidence in its own capability to deal with the dangers like China, with this original influence, I think India potentially can be a very important force in reshaping global geopolitics. And also keep in mind, India is considered as a leader of the non-alignment movement, and India is working really hard to get into the UN Security Council as a permanent member of that body. And I think China has been monopolizing that part of global representation for too long, and India is not very happy with it.
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah, I think the trend of India's role in the region is going to be one we're going to be following for a long time. And to finish this off for our final topic, we've got a nice follow-up to last week's discussion highlighting the global EV market. The EU must have been listening, Miles, to our episode from last week because the EU a couple of days later announced plans to raise their tariffs on China's EVs. But listeners really should go back to the episode from June 11th for more context here. But Miles, could you give us the update from your perspective on whether this was a good step? Was it big enough to actually slow potential Chinese takeover or is more going to be ultimately needed?
Miles Yu:
It works to a certain extent, but it really doesn't solve this systemic problem that China is posing to Europe. More realistically, the Biden administration announced the imposition of a hundred percent tariff on Chinese EV imports to the United States. That's more likely on the same scale, right?
Phil Hegseth:
Yeah.
Miles Yu:
That's why you don't see many Chinese made EVs running around the American streets and highways. EU’s tariff is far less, I think it's about 25 to 30%, something like that. It's very, very minor. It would not stop the Chinese price advantage, which basically is completely state subsidized. China also has a very clever way to bypass all these things. They don't have to export to EU countries. All they have to do is corrupt one of the few countries right now, definitely Hungary, And set up the manufacturing bases over there, so BYD, the Chinese UV company leading horse for example, could just easily set up the plants inside Hungary, the EU member, to make cars and to basically drive around the EU countries. That's one reason the EU is worried about Hungary. I mean, they actually imposed some kind of fine, kind of slap on the wrist to Hungarians say, you are bad. You're not playing the team, in the team. But I think EU has to think twice more seriously about how to deal with China from a systemic perspective, not just a little bit of the tariff, and mostly importantly, has to clear up his own house.
Phil Hegseth:
Great. Well, thank you Miles. That's all we had today but looking forward to seeing you again next week.
Miles Yu:
Alright, looking forward to it too.
Thank you for listening to this episode of China Insider. I'd like to thank my colleague Shane Leary for taking part in this undertaking every week. I'd also like to thank our executive producer, Philip Hegseth, who works tirelessly and professionally behind the scenes for every episode. To make sure we deliver the best quality podcast to you, the listeners, if you enjoy the show, please spread the word. For Chinese listeners, please check our monthly review and analysis episode in Chinese. We'll see you next time.