China’s influence in Afghanistan has become increasingly evident following America’s withdrawal in August 2021. With the collapse of the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the takeover by Taliban, China has strategically sought to expand its engagement and presence in the country. The United States should see the situation as more than a humanitarian crisis, as Afghanistan could play a crucial role in countering China's growing hegemony in the region.
China has a keen interest in Afghanistan's economic potential. Beijing views the country as a possible source of valuable mineral resources such as copper, lithium, and rare earth elements which are essential for China’s industries. Chinese companies have shown in Afghanistan and have been eager to secure access to these resources.
The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is . Since the U.S. withdrawal, Afghanistan has experienced . The U.N. has issued , exacerbated by the Taliban's decision to . As a result, some countries have reduced or even halted aid to Afghanistan.
Afghanistan occupies a strategic position in the BRI infrastructure projects. The Chinese investment model heavily relies on loans, which often result in for the recipient countries. Nevertheless, countries like Afghanistan and regimes like the Taliban prioritize accessing funds and bolstering their propaganda over sustainable economic growth.
China is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts with the Taliban. Last March, Chinese Foreign Minister . In a recent trilateral dialogue between China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met with his Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang, and
China is also concerned about (ETIM), which it considers a terrorist organization. China sought cooperation from the previous Afghan government, and now works with the Taliban to prevent extremist activities from spilling over into its Xinjiang region. The Chinese government’s fear of ETIM has motivated it to invest in and engage with the Taliban to control the ETIM threat. Currently, China appears to be actively engaging with the Taliban and cultivating its influence with the regime.
The nature of China’s centralized government means its foreign policy is often characterized by a long-term vision. Even before August 2021, China . In contrast, U.S. foreign policy operates within four-year terms, and is often subject to change from one election cycle to another. This makes it more difficult for the U.S. to pursue a similarly long-term vision. China consistently sought ways to influence the Taliban to prepare for the possibility of its takeover in Afghanistan to secure its help in containing the ETIM threat.
The future of China's relationship with Taliban remains uncertain, but the current regime maintains a favorable relationship with Beijing. Following the Afghan foreign minister’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart in Pakistan, the Taliban’s foreign ministry clearly indicating a strong and welcoming approach toward China and the BRI.
Beijing's engagement in Afghanistan raises concerns about the long-term potential of increased Chinese influence in the region. The extent of Chinese involvement and its impact on Afghanistan's political landscape, as well as broader regional dynamics, will continue to shape the geopolitical situation in Central Asia and the Middle East.
For instance, China recently between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two countries with longstanding tensions that see each other as potential security threats in the region. This demonstrates China's growing ambition to play a more prominent role in the Middle East. However, this does not necessarily mean China is becoming stronger than the United States. Rather, the U.S. withdrawal has created a vacuum in the region, which China has begun to fill.
China perceives the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban rise to power as a "win-win," enabling it to highlight Washington’s unreliability as a regional partner while positioning Beijing as the savior of the region. It is crucial that the U.S. prevent Afghanistan from becoming a hub for Chinese influence in the region — to preserve American security and the region’s stability.