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Commentary
The Wall Street Journal

Can India Emerge as a Rival to China?

Manufacturing hasn’t been a strong suit, and technology alone won’t do the trick.

walter_russell_mead
walter_russell_mead
Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship
President Xi Jinping (R) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands before the group photo during the BRICS Summit at the Xiamen International Conference and Exhibition Center in Xiamen, southeastern China's Fujian Province on September 4, 2017.
Caption
President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands before the group photo during the BRICS Summit in Fujian, China, on September 4, 2017. (Kenzaburo Fukuhara/AFP via Getty Images)

New Delhi

 to Washington reminded Americans last week that Japan has become America’s most important ally. But my visit to the Ananta Centre’s India-U.S. Forum here over the weekend reminded me that the future of the Indo-Pacific rests largely in India’s hands.

The history of Asia can be read in comparing the Indian and Chinese economies. According to World Bank figures in chained dollars, in 1980 India’s gross domestic product was 64% of China’s. By 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organization, India’s economy was only 28% as large as China’s. And, despite several years of rapid growth in the 21st century, by 2021 India’s economy had fallen even further behind and equaled only 17% of the Chinese economy. Even as India has caught up with China in population and built a world-class cyber industry, it has not emerged as the kind of manufacturing powerhouse that could rival China’s economic weight in Asia and beyond.