As of 5:00 P.M. EST on Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight's state-by-state, polls-only forecast for the November 8 general election a projected tally of 269 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 269 for Donald Trump. FiveThirtyEight projects Trump to win all 24 of the states that Mitt Romney won, plus five that Romney lost: Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
However, Nebraska and Maine each allocate one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district in their respective states. FiveThirtyEight projects that Trump will sweep the three Nebraska districts, while Clinton will lose one of Maine's two districts (Maine's 2nd Congressional District, the more rural of the two). That would give Trump a win in the nationwide tally, 270 to 268.
FiveThirtyEight that if the election were held today, rather than in November, Trump would also win in Pennsylvania, giving him a 289-249 margin, or 290 to 248, including the split tally in Maine.
Despite FiveThirtyEight's projected electoral-vote tie on a state-by-state basis, its polls-only model still gives Clinton a 53 percent chance of winning on Election Day, to 47 percent for Trump. Two weeks ago, that same model gave Clinton a 77 percent chance of winning, to 23 percent for Trump.
Once the Democratic National Convention has been completed, one would expect Clinton to regain the lead, at least temporarily, as she will presumably get some sort of post-convention bounce.