Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
• The Biden administration gave Ukraine the green light to use American-supplied long-range weaponry to strike some military targets inside Russia.
• The North Korean military reportedly sent 170mm-class heavy artillery into Russia.
• Ukraine’s partners are continuing to upgrade the country’s F-16 fleet.
• Russian forces unleashed a massive barrage of missiles and drones on Ukraine’s energy network and continued to capture territory along multiple fronts.
1. Biden Administration Eases Restrictions on Use of US-Provided Weapons
In a major development, the to use American long-range weaponry, particularly the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), to strike military targets inside Russia. Subsequently, the French newspaper Le Figaro reported that France and the United Kingdom had followed suit by allowing Ukraine to use SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow missiles for the same purpose, though the publication shortly after its release to indicate that London and Paris were only engaging in “debates” on the question.
that Washington may still be limiting Kyiv’s use of American munitions to targets relevant to Ukraine’s Kursk incursion. Regardless, the Biden administration’s decision to remove the restraints came not a moment too soon. The Ukrainian Armed Forces need to target Russia’s strategic depth, particularly critical military basing structures and force groupings in assembly areas. Depending on its warhead configuration and variant, the ATACMS is well-suited for this role.
2. North Korean Heavy Artillery Spotted in Russia
identified North Korean M1989 Koksan 170mm self-propelled howitzers on Russian last week, indicating that Pyongyang has stepped up its tactical support for the Kremlin.
These North Korean systems are formidable, as artillery has traditionally determined the conventional military balance on the Korean Peninsula. Declassified field assessments conclude that Pyongyang possesses dangerous fire-support , and the has determined that North Korea’s massed artillery and special forces units pose a significant threat to South Korea.
Of all its artillery systems, Pyongyang’s 170mm-class self-propelled howitzers and 240mm-class heavy multiple-launch rocket systems . The 170mm Koksan howitzer has an operational range of 37 miles and can unleash an initial burst of four rounds in , followed by one round every three minutes. It is designed to fire from protected areas and relocate for reloading. Pyongyang has hundreds of Koksan guns in its arsenal and can afford to send a significant number to the Kremlin.
What remains unknown is whether North Korea is sending its artillery systems to support Russian units or to augment its own 10,000-strong 11th Corps detachments in the Russian region of Kursk. While open-source intelligence is thus far limited, it is distinctly possible that the North Korean 11th Corps is only the vanguard of a larger follow-on force.
3. Boosting Ukraine’s Growing F-16 Fleet
In recent weeks the Biden administration has worked to boost the capabilities of Ukraine’s burgeoning F-16 fighter aircraft fleet. The Pentagon has permitted American defense contractors to operate in Ukraine so weapons systems that Washington has transferred to Kyiv can be maintained and repaired in country. This will make US-made F-16s and Patriot strategic air and missile defense systems much easier for Ukraine to use. The United States has also provided the Ukrainian Air Force with an intensive , further enhancing Ukraine’s air warfare capabilities.
Of Ukraine’s European partners, have contributed the most to Kyiv’s F-16 deterrent. Belgium and Norway have also pledged to supply Kyiv with the fighter aircraft, so Ukraine will soon possess over 90 and may be able to operate two squadrons by 2025.
Notably, the Dutch F-16s are Viper Midlife Upgrade variants, which means they have additional precision-guided munitions certifications, better cockpit systems, more capable sensors, and software modernizations that are for US-made F-16s. This is particularly important for Ukraine because the fighter aircraft derives much of its from the weapons systems and external pods it is equipped with.
Kyiv’s air deterrent may also be receiving a boost from Greece. Press sources have claimed that Athens, in retaliation for a Russian missile strike on Odesa during Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s visit to the city, had decided to send its decommissioned, older F-16 variants to Ukraine after refurbishing them in the United States. While this has not yet occurred, the on the provision of training and technical support for Ukraine’s F-16 fleet.
Ukraine’s F-16s have had a mixed record in combat roles. They have been used primarily to shoot down . In Russian aircraft downed a Ukrainian F-16 and killed its pilot. While some sources have reported that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber, that incident has never been . Regardless, protecting Ukrainian airspace will remain a key priority as Kyiv and its partners defend against continued Russian aggression.
4. Battlefield Assessment
Last week saw a devastating rise in the number of Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine. During the night of November 17, the Russian military unleashed a salvo of 42 loitering munitions and 102 missiles, its largest in many months. The attack targeted Ukraine’s energy network in major cities including Kyiv.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia used one Zircon hypersonic missile and one Kinzhal aeroballistic missile in the barrage. The air component of the strike package involved nuclear-capable Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers and Tu-22M3 tactical bombers, along with other tactical military aviation assets. Ukrainian officials civilian casualties in addition to the damage to energy facilities.
Despite major political developments, only moderate changes in the battlefield geometry occurred last week. Augmented by North Korean forces, the Russian military pressed to recapture the territory it has lost to Ukrainian forces in Kursk before the Trump administration takes office. In the east, Ukraine’s lines of defense remained overstretched, allowing the Russian campaign to maintain a costly but steady pace. At other flashpoints, including Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Klishchiivka, and Velyka Novosilka, gained territory at the tactical level.
Ukraine’s drone warfare prowess also continued to influence the conflict. against Russian air defense assets increased, . Russia also erected new defensive structures to protect the Kerch Bridge, which connects occupied Crimea to mainland Russia, from Ukrainian . A previous 91 study assessed Kyiv’s military options for striking this tactically and symbolically significant bridge.