SVG
Commentary
Journal of Information Warfare

Cognitive Centric Warfare: Modelling Indirect Approach in Future Warfare

koichiro_takagi
koichiro_takagi
Japan Chair Fellow (Nonresident)
A billboard promoting contract army service with an image of a serviceman and the slogan reading "Serving Russia is a real job" sits in Saint Petersburg on September 20, 2022. (Photo by Olga MALTSEVA / AFP) (Photo by OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP via Getty Images)
Caption
A billboard promoting contract army service with the slogan reading "Serving Russia is a real job" sits in Saint Petersburg on September 20, 2022. (Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images)

Abstract: With the development of science and technology, warfare has become a multi-domain operation that includes land, sea, air, space, cyber, electromagnetic waves, and human cognition. Nonetheless, existing research has not examined the relationship between each of these domains and the cognitive domain. Hence, this paper explores how cognitive influence on adversaries can be exerted from multiple domains. This paper analyses the case of the war in Ukraine in which the latest science and technology were used. This article finds that attacks on human cognition are exerted from all domains and provides a comprehensive model of cognitive influence on the adversary.


Introduction

Since ancient times, war has been a battle of wills between the two parties involved, and humans have fought in the domain of cognition. In the 6th century B.C., Sun Tzu insisted on the importance of surrendering to the enemy without resorting to force. In the 5th century B.C., Thucydides argued that three elements of war were fear, honor, and interest. In the early 19th century, Clausewitz (1989) stated that war is an act to force one’s will on the enemy. Thus, the cognitive aspects of human beings in war are central to war theories.


An enemy’s recognition that he or she has lost the war is an important requirement for the end of the war. Very rarely in the history of warfare has there been a case, such as Carthage’s defeat to Rome, where a city is removed without a trace, the entire population is enslaved, and the state physically annihilated. In many cases, the will of the involved parties has determined the continuation and end of a war.


Sun Tzu and Basil Liddell-Hart argued for the importance of an indirect approach strategy that avoids physical warfare and affects the enemy’s will. However, Sun Tzu and Liddell-Hart did not offer specific suggestions on how to do so. Furthermore, the rapid development of science and technology in recent years—particularly information and communication technology, social media, and artificial intelligence—has rapidly changed indirect approach methods.

 

With the development of science and technology, warfare has become a multi-domain operation that includes the traditional physical domains of land, sea, and air, as well as the relatively new technological domains of space, cyber, and electromagnetic waves, and even human cognition. Operations in each domain are conducted across the board, as aircraft attack targets on the ground and at sea, and cyber means target weapons on land, sea, air, and space. In the same way, attacks are carried out from all domains, targeting the domain of human cognition. Nevertheless, existing research on information operations and the cognitive domain has not explored the relationship between the domains of land, sea, air, space, cyber, and electromagnetic waves and the domain of human cognition.


Given this situation, the research question of this article is how cognitive influence on an adversary is exerted from multiple domains: land, sea, air, space, cyber, electromagnetic, and cognitive domains.


To this end, this article analyzes the case of the Ukrainian War, a large-scale war between nations in which the latest science and technology are used, and extracts examples that influence the adversary’s cognition from the land, sea, air, space, cyber, electromagnetic, and cognitive domains. To plan operations in warfare, it is necessary to integrate and synchronize all domains. Hence, this paper systematizes the extracted cases to provide a comprehensive model of the methods of cognitive influence on the adversary.


In doing so, this paper modifies the Five Ring Model proposed by John Warden, taking into account the recent development of information and communication technology, in addition to the fact that human cognition is central to war. The Three Ring Model proposed by this paper consists of three domains: the cognitive domain (consisting of political leaders, military decision makers, and the population); the informational domain (consisting of the information and communication infrastructure); and the physical domain (consisting of the military forces).


This article first discusses the literature review on related concepts and then analyses the cases of the war in Ukraine. Then, this article systematizes the cases and presents the model.